Methodology
The TRT Quantitative Intelligence Methodology
Data → Indicators → Measurement → Prediction → Impact → Action → Outcome.
Every stage below is designed to remove opinion from the process one step at a time.
1. Open-Source Intelligence Acquisition
TRT begins with the systematic acquisition of publicly available data across seven source domains.
Regulatory
Government agencies, regulatory bodies, parliamentary records, court records, public filings
Corporate
Annual reports, financial disclosures, procurement records, investor communications
Digital
Public websites/platforms, technical repositories, digital infrastructure indicators
Economic
Market indicators, trade data, public economic statistics, investment flows
Geopolitical
Policy changes, diplomatic developments, political events, cross-border developments
Community & Social
Public stakeholder indicators, community activity, public complaints, local developments
Environmental
Climate data, environmental events, sustainability disclosures
2. Data Fusion Layer
Individual data points rarely provide sufficient intelligence. TRT applies Intelligence Fusion: multiple weak, individually-manageable indicators — rising regulatory attention, community complaints, environmental incidents, employee concerns, investor questions — are correlated into an emerging pattern, such as an Enterprise Integrity Exposure.
Multiple Indicators → Emerging Pattern → Intelligence Assessment
3. The TRT Indicator System
Every relevant event is transformed into a measurable indicator, scored across nine attributes.
4. Signal Prioritization Model
Combining Frequency, Velocity, Severity, Persistence, Proximity, Connectivity and Credibility produces a TRT Signal Significance Score, classifying every signal into one of four tiers.
Observational
Interesting but currently low significance.
Relevant
Requires continued monitoring.
Material
Potentially significant to the organization.
Critical
Requires immediate executive attention.
5. The TRT Exposure Model
Exposure = Probability × Potential Impact × Vulnerability
Worked example: Probability 70% × Potential Impact High × Organizational Vulnerability High → High Exposure.
6. Impact Quantification Layer
Financial
Revenue exposure, cost escalation, capital loss, investor impact
Operational
Downtime, delays, productivity losses, supply chain disruption
Regulatory
Fines, investigations, supervisory action, compliance costs
Trust
Customer loss, investor confidence, community resistance, employee confidence
Strategic
Project delays, lost opportunities, competitive disadvantage
Cost of Action vs. Cost of Inaction
Every major risk is assessed under three scenarios — Baseline, Mitigation and Inaction. Illustrative example below (non-binding):
Cost of Action
≈ GHS 2M
Cost of Inaction
≈ GHS 20M
Operational disruption, regulatory exposure, lost revenue, reputation damage, emergency response.
Confidence Architecture
High Confidence
Multiple independent indicators support the assessment.
Moderate Confidence
Evidence is meaningful but incomplete.
Low Confidence
Early-stage indicators require further validation.
Interactive demo
Sample Executive Intelligence Scorecard
Illustrative sample — actual scores are client- and sector-specific.